Critically Speaking - April 2025
The no-nonsense newsletter for leaders who want to stay ahead in the carbon removal market.
Welcome to Critically Speaking.
The Supercritical newsletter bringing you sharp analysis, market intelligence, and practical strategy to keep you ahead of the carbon crunch. No fluff. No filler. Just what you need to know to lead on carbon.
Carbon removal is entering a new phase. Supply is tightening. Prices are climbing. And serious buyers are locking in long-term positions.
This month, we’re digging into biochar: the fastest-scaling removal method on the market and the first to face a real supply squeeze. We’re also sharing new project launches, product updates, and our latest research on offtake strategy.
Let’s get into it.
The biochar land grab: Why carbon removal buyers must act now
Current carbon removal capacity falls far short of what’s needed to meet global climate targets. Existing demand remains too low to drive large-scale expansion for CDR suppliers. Yet, by 2030, demand for permanent carbon removal could surge to six times existing supply, creating a significant shortfall.
How do we solve this chicken and egg dilemma?
For years, companies approached carbon removal with a ‘wait and see’ attitude. Today, that mindset is proving costly. The biochar offtake market is tightening at an accelerating pace, and buyers who delay securing long-term agreements will soon find themselves on the wrong side of the supply crunch.
Offtakes (long-term, multi-year purchase agreements that secure future carbon removal credits before they are issued) are the only way to secure supply, stabilize prices, and scale carbon removal.
Get your copy of “Locked in or left behind? Biochar offtakes in 2025”.
Biochar is at an inflection point
Unlike emerging carbon removal technologies like direct air capture (DAC), biochar is not constrained by technological development. Pyrolysis (the process behind biochar production) has been commercially viable for decades. The challenge isn’t developing the technology; it’s securing the financing to scale projects efficiently. And that financing depends on corporate buyers committing to offtakes.
80% of CDR buyers already choose biochar. Due to its low cost and high delivery rates, biochar is emerging as the most promising engineered CDR method. Yet, the market’s lack of infrastructure, forward financing, and procurement clarity are stalling growth.
Offtake agreements are the key to overcoming these barriers, providing suppliers with the bankable contracts they need to unlock the project financing required to build their infrastructure.
The market is tightening fast
What happens when demand rises faster than supply? Prices go up.
62% of 2025’s high-quality biochar credits are already locked up. Almost 30% of credits are secured through 2026. Major players like Microsoft, Google, and Stripe drove 80% of biochar offtake purchases in 2024, a clear indicator that supply will get tighter over time.
Companies that don’t sign offtakes now will be left with fewer options and higher costs. Those relying on spot purchases risk being priced out, or worse, failing to meet their climate targets due to supply shortages.
Supercritical’s historical pricing analysis shows biochar prices have increased at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 29.2% over the past four years. The combination of growing demand, long lead times for new project development (12–18 months), and a lack of financing for scale means that companies waiting to procure credits will pay a premium. Biochar prices rose 18% in 2024, but offtakers are saving up to 31%.
Grab our latest biochar insights report, “Locked in or left behind? Biochar offtakes in 2025,” to view our in-depth historical pricing analysis and a breakdown of three real-world scenarios demonstrating the financial impact of offtakes vs. spot purchases.
The supply gap is already critical
Over 10,000 companies have now set science-based targets and commitments in line with the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi). Yet, today, only 537 companies globally are purchasing carbon dioxide removal (CDR) credits. If the net zero targets set by businesses today are true, there will not be enough supply to meet demand by 2030.
Of the 50 Mt of projected demand by 2030, less than half is financed. If just 10% of SBTi companies with targets and commitments start buying today, the market would need to scale 25 times its current capacity. Companies that don’t commit to offtakes now will face intense competition for limited supply.
Offtakes are not a risk, they are risk management
One of the biggest misconceptions about offtakes is that they introduce unnecessary risk. The reality is the opposite: offtakes mitigate risk by locking in long-term supply at agreed-upon prices, protecting buyers from volatility and securing supply in a constrained market.
Biochar prices are set to rise, even under conservative demand scenarios. Even in the lowest-case demand scenario, we expect to see a 33% gap between supply and demand. Supply will only scale if enough buyers commit now, signaling demand to unlock financing for new projects.
What smart buyers are doing today
Leading corporations have already recognized the opportunity in biochar offtakes:
Google secured 100,000 tonnes from Varaha, the largest biochar offtake deal to date.
NextGen CDR signed a multi-year agreement with Exomad Green at $200 per tonne.
Swiss Re locked in 70,000 tonnes over a seven-year period with Exomad Green.
Rothschild & Co committed to a long-term agreement with Carbo Culture.
The market leaders aren’t just buying credits; they’re shaping the industry to work in their favor. The companies that act now will set the benchmarks for pricing, quality, and supply security. Companies like Tide and Rothschild are securing multi-year agreements, too, proving that securing high-quality carbon removal isn’t just for the tech giants. Any business serious about net zero is committing capital to offtakes today.
The window to act is closing
The data paints an urgent picture:
62% of 2025’s high-quality biochar credits are already committed to multi-year offtakes. Almost 30% of credits are locked up through 2026.
If even 100 of the 10,000+ companies with SBTi commitments begin procuring credits, supply will be overwhelmed.
Prices are forecasted to rise between 7.5% and 12.5% per year through 2027, but companies locking in offtakes are achieving up to 31% in cost savings.
The bottom line? Companies that secure offtakes today are hedging against future price hikes and ensuring they have access to high-quality, permanent carbon removal when they need it. The alternative is paying a premium, or worse, finding themselves locked out of the market altogether.
2030 net zero targets are just around the corner. Companies that delay procuring the volume they need will fall short. The best biochar deals are being signed right now. Will you be locked in, securing your position within a constrained market, or left behind, scrambling for supply when it’s too late?
💡 Ready to lock in? This is just a preview of the data, analysis, and insights featured in our latest biochar offtakes report. The carbon removal market is shifting fast, and procurement strategies need to keep pace. Using proprietary and market data, our report equips you with the intelligence needed to navigate a tightening market, lock in high-quality removals, and act with confidence—before the supply crunch hits.
What’s new at Supercritical?
📄 New analysis: “Locked in or left behind? Biochar offtakes in 2025”
Our latest report breaks down why offtakes are becoming the default strategy for serious carbon removal buyers. Explore real-world pricing scenarios, market forecasts, and the financial case for moving now.
▶️ Webinar replay: How smart buyers are navigating the biochar crunch
We unpacked live pricing trends, tightening supply, and the strategic procurement moves that are reshaping the biochar market.
🧠 Latest articles
Why offtakes are essential to scale CDR: The clearest path to supply security and long-term cost savings.
H/Corg and the biochar quality puzzle: What this metric tells us about biochar permanence and how it informs our 118-point vetting framework.
🛠 New offering: Supercritical x Exomad Green offtakes now available
We’re now offering long-term offtake agreements from Exomad Green, one of the most bankable names in biochar. Secure high-integrity credits with industry-leading permanence and delivery rates.
🌱 New projects on the marketplace
Bagepalli A/R Farm Forestry Programme (India)
A high-impact agroforestry project transforming uncultivable land into carbon-storing tree cover. Developed by ADATS, it spans 2,100 hectares and supports 1,694 smallholder families. Over 90% of carbon revenue goes directly to farmers, who reinvest into community funds for water, healthcare training, and education. This is high-integrity carbon removal with lasting social benefits.
OCO Technology (UK)
A pioneer in mineralization-based CDR, O.C.O Technology converts industrial waste into carbonated aggregate used in UK construction. Backed by four operational sites, the process permanently locks away CO₂ while displacing conventional building materials. For buyers prioritizing durability, it’s one of the most verifiable and permanent solutions available.
Both projects are available now via the Supercritical marketplace.